Good contingency planning during COVID-19
Good contingency planning always needs a framework from which to plan and Covid-19 is no different. In this article we’ll share analysis on how the operating environment may change over the next 18 months and what you can do now to respond effectively. Safer Edge has been analysing reports from Imperial College’s Centre for Infectious Disease Analysis, the WHO and the CDC, alongside advice from our own team of experts to establish that framework. As with all continuity planning there’s no guarantee these scenarios will arise, but as with all continuity planning it always pays to prepare. One graph most people in the UK will have seen is Imperial College’s modelling on how different restrictions will impact the number of fatalities from Covid-19. This modelling was a key element in the decision to apply lockdown in the UK. The modelling is drawn from disease surveillance across a number of countries worldwide.
Last week, Imperial College released another report modelling potential serious cases and fatalities worldwide. The modelling for this data took into account a number of variables such as the quality of healthcare systems in countries and age distribution ranges.
So what does this and other data tell us about the scenarios we should plan for? We recommend that organisations in the humanitarian and development sector should plan as follows:
The most intense period of business continuity response will be the next 18 months: on the basis of current predictions on the development and operationalisation of a suitable vaccine.
So plan for